Will PPP burn the bridge with PML-N over canal dispute?

Ever since the controversy over constructing six canals on the Indus River erupted, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s key ally, the Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP), has drawn a clear line in the sand: shelve the project, or risk the collapse of the federal government.

As political tensions rise between the two major parliamentary forces, where the PPPP helped PML-N cobble together a government at the Centre, the pressing question remains: is the PPP’s threat mere political posturing, or is it truly prepared to pull the plug?

Experts, for now, remain divided

With the PPPP and PML-N locking horns over water rights, analysts argue that the survival of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s administration now hinges on backchannel negotiations – initiated on April 20 — and the influence of powerful, behind-the-scenes stakeholders.

The PPP has voiced strong reservations about the canal project, which aims to meet the irrigation needs of the Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI) in the Cholistan desert. These concerns have persisted since Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Gen Asim Munir inaugurated the project on February 15.

Since the coalition’s formation, both parties have frequently engaged in what many describe as “fixed fights”, political theatrics intended more for public optics than actual outcomes.

However, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari’s latest ultimatum in Hyderabad marked a notable departure from the script. He explicitly called on the government to halt the project or risk losing PPP support – an explicit threat that could bring the already fragile federal setup to its knees.

The warning worked as PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif and PM Shehbaz swiftly instructed party functionaries to initiate dialogue before the situation spun out of control. Talks were formally opened.

The first meeting between both sides remains pending.